Liverpool host Leicester in probably the most mouth-watering fixture of this EPL round.
First against third in the table. The team that so badly wants to win a first Premier League title since 1990 against the team that so unexpectedly won it four seasons ago in spectacular fashion.
Brendan Rodgers, who was extremely close in clinching that desired trophy for Liverpool in 2013/14, returns to Anfield to face them as the current Leicester manager.
Jurgen Klopp’s army are unsurprisingly favorites to win the game. They still haven’t dropped a point this season and possess a comfortable 5-point lead ahead of Man City. Maybe this will be the year The Reds will finally manage to do it?
What is surprising, however, is the Goals Over/Under line bookmakers are currently offering. Over 2.5 goals in the game is heavily favored at 1.61* versus 2.30* for Under 2.5 goals.
I think the lines should be much closer to each other. It’s true that Liverpool scored 4 goals the other day in the Champions League against Salzburg, but the three matches preceding that one (if we exclude the Carabao Cup game which was played by reserve players only) showed that the Reds are not in their best attacking form.
Last weekend they won at newly-promoted Sheffield Utd only because of a goalkeeping blunder. The flair with wich Mane, Firmino and Salah so easily dominate the opposition was not present in that game.
Despite winning at Chelsea 2:1, that match was definitely not among the best attacking performances that Liverpool are capable of. Prior to that, they lost at Napoli in the Champions League without scoring a goal.
On the other side of the pitch this Saturday will be a team who very much knows how to defend. During the last 4 EPL matchweeks, Leicester are second in goal attempts conceded (only Man City are better than them) and top of the league in xG conceded (xG stands for Expected Goals which acknowledges the quality of chances Leicester’s opposition have had).
The Foxes haven’t conceded more than one goal in any game this season. Despite losing Harry Maguire to Man Utd over the summer, Leicester are very well organized defensively. Caglar Soyuncu has successfully filled in at centre back thus far.
Liverpool are favorites in this game, and rightfully so. However, this game is highly likely to see fewer goals than bookies expect and provides us with the opportunity to nail two value bets:
Liverpool v Leicester Prediction One: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds: 2.40* @ 1xBet
Bankroll Management: 6/10 Units
Liverpool v Leicester Prediction Two: Liverpool to Win and Under 2.5 Goals in the game
Odds: 4.30* @ Betsson
Bankroll Management: 4/10 Units
*Please note that odds vary. The odds mentioned here are correct at the time of writing.