Friday betting summary
The only surprise on Friday was Portugal’s draw at home to Ukraine. Despite the multiple opportunities for scoring the reigning European Champions had, Andriy Shevchenko’s squad held firmly. This result makes the three-way battle between Portugal, Ukraine and Serbia really interesting. Two of these teams will qualify for EURO 2020 directly, whereas the third will have to overcome the playoffs. All three teams have a guaranteed playoff spot resulting from their successful Nations League performance.
England took care of the Czech Republic in a comfortable fashion, whereas France destroyed Moldova away from home. Luxembourg managed to overcome their recent Nations League disappointment and beat Lithuania. Bulgaria, as I suggested in the article analyzing Friday’s games, had difficulties when playing at home when they are considered favorites, and only got a point, to a large extent thanks to the referee and the non-existent penalty.
Unfortunately for me personally, both of my suggested betting picks didn’t materialize. Turkey showed that they are the stronger team and took care of business in Albania. I hoped Andorra would lose by a maximum of one goal, but they conceded a 2nd in the 80th minute. However, that was deservedly so as Iceland were the substantially better team. With this win, they broke a streak of one full year consisting of 15 games without a win. These results are huge steps for Turkey and Iceland in their quest for second place, whereas Albania now have a mountain to climb if they wish to stay relevant for the rest of this group’s matches.
Despite these disappointments, I am of course sticking to my betting strategy. Sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint. 🙂
Bets for today
As discussed in the EURO 2020 qualifying outright bets section in the qualifiers guide, I believe Sweden will win at home. They’ve shown over the past year that they are a better team than Romania and Norway, and in order to get that precious second spot in that group, they will need to start strongly today. Lindelof won’t play which makes things harder, but the Swedes have enough quality to cover his absence. Average odds for a Swedish victory are 1.80 and I am on it with 5/5 betting units.
I don’t like the available odds in the other 7 games, with nothing shouting value to me. At such short odds, none of the big favorites (Italy, Spain, Bosnia, Greece, Ireland) can convince me to jump on them and risk a substantial part of my bankroll to yield a meaningful return. But in general I am not a fan of such odds. Although, if you are confident, a multiple may come in handy. Just have yesterday’s Portugal result in mind – short odds don’t mean surprises aren’t possible.
Odds in the range of 1.60 – 1.70 can’t make me trust Switzerland away from home to a Georgian side who won their Nations League group convincingly. The game between minnows Malta and Faroe Islands is a coin toss. Neither of them has chances to qualify and they failed securing a playoff spot. The best thing to do probably is avoid that game altogether.
Good luck with your bets today!