US Open starts today with a full day of action at the Flushing Meadows. This article proposes three value picks from the men’s main draw.
Denis Kudla v Janko Tipsarevic
Tipsarevic announced that he will retire at the end of the season, bringing a noteworthy career distracted by injuries to its conclusion.
This means US Open will be the last Grand Slam for the veteran Serb. Despite his physical limitations, you can be sure that he will give his all to achieve one last victory (at least) at the grandest stage. His opponent today, Denis Kudla, is suitable for that purpose.
Tipsarevic has a 0.543 career win percentage on hard courts, whereas Kudla currently stays on 0.277. This year is consistent with his career average, as Kudla has 12 losses and only 3 wins on the surface.
Jack Sock v Pablo Cuevas
Sock has been in an eternal hole since his 2017 ATP Finals appearance. Nearly two years later, he is recording loss after loss, has been out with injuries, and the subject of ridicule among tennis fans and pundits.
At some point though, he’s got to clinch a victory in order to get back on track and return to the Top 100 in the ATP Rankings.
Two of the three losses after his comeback in July were hard-fought – a loss in three sets to Mikhail Kukushkin and a loss in two tight tie-breaks to in-form Miomir Kecmanovic. These results indicate that Sock is trying to improve his performances.
A wild card for this year’s US Open and a winnable R1 match may be the formula he needs to succeed today. He is playing against Pablo Cuevas, a seasoned veteran who hasn’t played a match this month. Cuevas is best on clay and has only one victory on hard courts this season. He also has worse career results on hard courts (0.427 win ratio) than Jack Sock (0.554 win ratio).
Sock is priced at 2.20* which seems appropriate for a mid-sized bet.
Guido Pella v Pablo Carreno Busta
This is one of the tightest matches in terms of betting odds today. Guido Pella is in great form, following up his quarter-final at Wimbledon with a Los Cabos semi-final and a few good victories in the August Masters 1000 tournaments. That, combined with his awesome results on clay in February and April, has boosted his ranking to 20th in the world.
His opponent today – Pablo Carreno Busta – finds himself under number 69 in the rankings. However, we shouldn’t forget that he is a former Top 10 player. He struggled at the start of the season with ordinary results (except a R16 appearance at the Australian Open) but here’s why you should back him to win today:
- Better career hard court win ratio than Pella (0.525 v 0.410)
- Better win/loss ratio on hard courts in 2019 than Pella (8-4 v 7-7)
- He’s in good form – in his 4 most recent tournaments he’s recorded one semi-final, one quarter-final and reached the third round in Cincinnati as a qualifier
- Carreno Busta is 60-33 against left-handers in his career (Pella is a left-hander)
- The Spaniard has won the only H2H match they’ve played in two sets
You can back him to win today at attractive odds of 1.85*.
*Please note that odds vary. The odds mentioned here are correct at the time of writing.